Monthly Insights

"Ideas shape the course of history." -John Maynard Keynes


March 2015 Monthly Insight: Maintaining the Course in Volatile Markets

Posted by on Sunday, March 15th, 2015 in Investing, Market and Economic Updates, Monthly Insights | 0 comments

Monday, March 9 is the sixth anniversary of the S&P 500 hitting bottom after dropping over 57% from peak-to-trough over the previous 17 months.  In other words, from October 2007 to March 2009 the market dropped 57% and then for no reason anyone can identify and at a time no one expected the fall ended.  Just like that, it was over.  On that day, the S&P 500 closed at 676.53.  The very next day, it was up 6.4%.  At the end of February this year, the S&P 500 closed at 2,104.50, up 211% from the March 2009 low. From the chart above,...

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February 2015 Monthly Insight: The January Barometer and Portfolio Risk

Posted by on Sunday, February 15th, 2015 in Investing, Market and Economic Updates, Monthly Insights | 0 comments

The January Barometer Historically, the S&P 500 performance in the first month of the year has an 88% chance of indicating where the index will end the year, according to Stock Trader’s Almanac. Since 1950 there have been only 8 years the trend didn’t hold. Although the “January Barometer” has had a strong success rate over the last sixty years, it has not proved to be a good predictor three of the last six years. Thus, you had a 50/50 chance of being right, guessing up or down, for the year following the January results. This indicates...

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January 2015 Monthly Insight: Out With 2014 and In With 2015

Posted by on Thursday, January 15th, 2015 in Investing, Market and Economic Updates, Monthly Insights | 0 comments

Since January 2, we have received a deluge of “annual updates” showing where folks should have invested last year.  Just when some of us are starting a new year filled with confidence, hope, and faith in a new year, and maybe with passion for new resolutions, we now read how obvious it was a year ago that we should have been invested in just these two or three future top performers.  What is it they say about hindsight? The fact of the matter is research strongly suggests no one can accurately forecast the future market direction...

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