February 2015 Monthly Insight: The January Barometer and Portfolio Risk
The January Barometer Historically, the S&P 500 performance in the first month of the year has an 88% chance of indicating where the index will end the year, according to Stock Trader’s Almanac. Since 1950 there have been only 8 years the trend didn’t hold. Although the “January Barometer” has had a strong success rate over the last sixty years, it has not proved to be a good predictor three of the last six years. Thus, you had a 50/50 chance of being right, guessing up or down, for the year following the January results. This indicates...
read moreJanuary 2015 Monthly Insight: Out With 2014 and In With 2015
Since January 2, we have received a deluge of “annual updates” showing where folks should have invested last year. Just when some of us are starting a new year filled with confidence, hope, and faith in a new year, and maybe with passion for new resolutions, we now read how obvious it was a year ago that we should have been invested in just these two or three future top performers. What is it they say about hindsight? The fact of the matter is research strongly suggests no one can accurately forecast the future market direction...
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